Monday, July 8, 2013

Unemployment data better than expected

On Friday, the U.S. labor market data cheered investors and stock indices advanced by 1 per cent. S & P 500 index value increased by 1.02 percent., The Dow Jones Industrial Average - had 0.98 percent., And the Nasdaq - 1.04 percent. Over the last week they rose from 1.5 to 2.2 percent. On Friday, the financial and industrial sector indices recorded major gains, but only in the utilities sector shares went down.
Today begins the second quarter of companies’ financial results announcement marathon. The first results will be published after trade marketing aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. '.

The United States


 in June of workers in non-agricultural sectors increased by 195 thousand. This data strongly exceeded the expectations of investors – it was expected only 155 thousand new jobs. Most jobs were created in bars, restaurants and hotels. Also, the number of employees increased in retail, healthcare and professional services sectors, and fell in manufacturing and government sectors. Also, the greater half of the previous month’s data has been revised. For example, in April was created 50 thousand more jobs than had been previously announced, and in May of 20 thousand. more. The unemployment rate remained unchanged - 7.6 percent, And unemployment rate, which included the unemployed and those who are no longer motivated work or do not work full-time, down from 14.3 percent to 13.8 per cent.

Western Europe

On Friday, the Western European stock market index values ​​declined 14 of the 18 national markets. U.S. labor market statistics were better than expected and it is accepted by investors as a sign that the Fed will reduce the scale of the stimulation. German factory orders fell 1.3 percent. Most economists forecasted 1.2 percent growth. Weekly change in the markets, however, was a positive sign, because the meeting of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England insisted on keeping to easy monetary policy.

Today futures index shows growth in the Western European stock market. These days, market participants again recalled the troubled euro zone, but it is expected that Greece will agree with the creditors on even one more payment. Attention will be given to ECB President M. Draghi at the European Parliament - awaiting hints of how long it will maintain low interest rate environment.

Asia

Today, Asian stock indexes fell the most in the past two weeks. Global equities MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.5 percent. All 10 sectors of the economy indices decreased. China's commodity-sector shares in companies today went down the most. "Jiangxi Copper Co." And "Shandong Gold-Mining Co. shares lost 4.7 and 7.3 percent of their value. After the Chinese government to the Council on the economic reforms that have been mentioned above constraints asset management products and lending to certain sectors of the economy, China's banks are also often sold than bought. For example, China Construction Bank Corp. Swept the stock price by 2.8 per cent., While Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.'s Share price fell 2.7 percent.

Raw materials

In the last business day of the week "WTI oil prices increased 1.96 percent, brent had 2.1 percent. It was the fourth consecutive WTI Oil prices have day and same price rose to the highest level in the past fourteen months. Clashes in Egypt after the overthrow of President of the country has become a major cause of the growth in oil prices, as investors fear further unrest in a politically sensitive area. In addition, reported that closed the main Libyan oil export terminal in the port of disagreements with management staff salaries as well as security issues. By the way, the price of oil, and supported by favorable macro-economic news from the United States, related to the better-than-expected labor market data. It is likely that in the coming days, and most of this energy resource market players eyes will turn to Egypt, and the price may increase, while the situation at least a little bit complacent.

The price of gold fell 2.14 percent on Friday. up to 1223 U.S. dollars per troy ounce after the published better than expected U.S. jobs in June changes. This again shows that the Fed can really take in the near future the current conduct of monetary policy retraction. U.S. dollar against major currencies on Friday increased to the highest level in three years, and this is also the price of gold down the pushing factor. It is likely that the price of this precious metal can once again get close to 1200 U.S. dollars per troy ounce range when immediate macroeconomic data from the U.S. are positive.

Friday, July 5, 2013

Market news from yesterday and today

The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday did not change the base rate of 0.5 per cent. Deposit rate also remained unchanged (0 percent). During the press conference the ECB's head of M. Draghi assured that in order to support the region's economic recovery, the base interest rate will remain at the current level as long as needed. M. Draghi said that the ECB Board held extensive discussions on further interest rate cuts and assured that liquidity continues to remain high. The funny thing is that it was decided unanimously to adopt a new communication policy that will lead to further monetary policy vision. After M. Draghi's comments the euro has fallen to 1.29 dollar per euro, core European equity indices values ​​jumped 2-3 percent. This morning the Asian market is also rising (Japan NIKKEI +1.81 percent. The Chinese Hang Seng +1.46 percent). Bank of England also did not change the interest rate (0.5 percent), And promotion of the program volume remained 375 billion pounds. This was the first meeting after the bank was taken over by the former head of Canada's central bank M. Carney.


Today the central event in the financial markets - the U.S. labor market data published. It is predicted to be created 165 thousand new jobs (except public and agricultural sector), and the unemployment rate dropped from 7.6 percent to 7.5 per cent. These data are particularly welcome, as will make an impression on the U.S. economy trends, which will help in predicting further Fed action.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Overview of markets for last week

Europe

Trading sessions in Europe in 2013! Last week ended with most of the major indices fall. Investor sentiment was negatively affected by news from the U.S., where the Chicago Purchasing Managers Association of Business Activity Index in 2013 June fell to 51.6 points from 58.7 points in May. Meanwhile, analysts predicted the index value at the level of 56.0 points.

In 2013. June 28. trading session, the British FTSE index fell 27.93 points (-0.45%) - up to 6,215.47 points, the German DAX index fell 31.53 points (-0.39%) - up to 7,959.22 points, the French CAC 40 fell 23.28 points (-0.62%) - up to 3738.91 points. Swiss SMI rose 11.08 points (0.15%) - to 7731.82 points, the Dutch AEX fell 0.16 points (0.05%) - up 344.59 points. Single European FTSEurofirst 300 index, data session, fell by 0.44% to reach 1,152.36 points level.

U.S.

The trading session of the United States in 2013. Last week major indexes ended with fall after four days of growth. The core of that was a negative impact on investors' concerns about the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) quantitative easing program cuts.

In addition, the quotes drop was influenced by negative macroeconomic statistics. Chicago Purchasing Managers Association of Business Activity Index (PMI) fell more than predicted by experts.

In 2013 June 28. trading session, the Dow Jones index fell 114.89 points (-0.76%) - up to 14,909.60 points, the S & P index of - 6.92 points (-0.43%) - up to 1605.28 points, the Nasdaq index rose 1.39 points (+0.04%) - to 3403.25 points.

Japan

The trading session in Japan in 2013 June 28. Nikkei index ended 3.51% rise on positive macroeconomic data from the U.S.

Main Index boom ensured particularly positive news from the U.S., where the weak GDP data delayed fast the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) quantitative "smoothing" policy Reduction.

In 2013. June 28. trading session, the Nikkei index rose 3.51% and amounted to 13,677.32 points. The dollar against the yen rose 1.06 yen compared to the previous trading day course and at the end of trading session was 98.87 yen / dollars.

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

S&P to 1600 and then new highs?

I would not be surprised if S&P500 reached 1600 and then go on to make higher highs. The first target is within the reach of a hand. The second one is a bit more complicated. The resistance at 1600 level should be pretty strong. However, the mere fact that the index did not fall below 1540 shows that market bulls are still very strong and are ready to buy on dips.

That's why I expect the uptrend to continue in stocks. All fundamentals somehow have short term effect and markets get back to their primary trends when the heat of the news disappears. In my opinion, this time will not be an exception. The stock index will definitely try to go higher. We will see if that becomes a reality.

See you soon.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

The course for markets set today

The course for the immediate market movements across the world will be set today. FED rate release is one thing and it has already been posted. Press conference held by FED chairman Ben Bernanke is another thing. We do know that he will be stepping down from his post sooner rather than later and we do want to know what will be next steps of Federal Reserve. Will bond buying program continue or not?

Let the chairman tell himself. His speech is scheduled at 18:30 GMT, which is in a matter of a few minutes. Do not be troubled the world will not end, but markets will be very volatile for the next upcoming hours and possibly till the end of the week. US dollar is expected to rise. It seems that the Japanese Yen will continue falling and stocks may recover.

See you tomorrow.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Markets may get wild soon

Markets are known for being wild sometimes. This is becoming a rule rather than exception nowadays. And it can  be said about any market now. Stock indexes have been jumping up and down recently and you should definitely expect this continue. When FED announces their rate decision sparks will definitely start flying in all directions.

Watch what happens to S&P500 or Japanese stock index. They are going in both directions like crazy. And theses swings will probably get wilder on Wednesday when the rate decision is announced. Nobody knows where US dollar index will go. I bet it will go up. Gold and silver will probably be down. Japanese Yen should rise. British pound to rise too.

Anyway, let us wait for the day and let the market to decide.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Australian dollar oversold like never before

Well, maybe I exaggerate a little. There have been much worse times. However, Australian dollar hasn't been so oversold in four years. The worse time was only when the 2008 crisis hit financial markets. Now, being aussie at these levels one naturally wonders how far it can go. In my humble opinion we are about to see a bounce. I am not sure if that will be a major recovery, but a week or two of bullish action on behalf of the currency should take place.

Unfortunately, there is no enough fundamental back up for such a position of mine and I would prefer to wait for the employment data from Australia on Wednesday. This might show what stage Australia job market is in and whether the Central Bank of Australia is going to lower interest rates or not. If the data is bad, no risk aversion will come into play for the time being.