Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Australian dollar oversold like never before

Well, maybe I exaggerate a little. There have been much worse times. However, Australian dollar hasn't been so oversold in four years. The worse time was only when the 2008 crisis hit financial markets. Now, being aussie at these levels one naturally wonders how far it can go. In my humble opinion we are about to see a bounce. I am not sure if that will be a major recovery, but a week or two of bullish action on behalf of the currency should take place.

Unfortunately, there is no enough fundamental back up for such a position of mine and I would prefer to wait for the employment data from Australia on Wednesday. This might show what stage Australia job market is in and whether the Central Bank of Australia is going to lower interest rates or not. If the data is bad, no risk aversion will come into play for the time being.

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